More On Cities Of The Future

July 19th, 2007

Since I posted that bit about Rebecca Solnit’s article on the future of cities, I thought I’d follow it with this from the BBC:

Urban populations are set to double in African and Asian cities over the next 30 years, warns UNFPA.

This will add 1.7 billion people to those cities, more than the populations of China and the US combined, it says.

The report, entitled The State of World Population 2007: Unleashing the Potential of Urban Growth, says every week the number of people living in cities in Africa and Asia increases by approximately one million.

The report calls for a radical rethink on cities. Which is why I’m posting about it - I love radical, I love rethink, and I love cities.

Story here.

Taking The Long Way Home

July 9th, 2007

A poll I just dug up on Partnership for New York City’s website says that most commuters in NYC who drive to work do so even though they know that taking mass transit would get them where they’re going as fast or faster.

The poll, which was conducted between March 12 and April 4, 2007, found that just 17 percent of drivers take their cars into Manhattan’s CBDs because of inaccessible or inconvenient mass transit options.

Additionally, only 10 percent of drivers say that they avoid mass transit because it is too slow. In a clear indication that saving time is not a primary reason for driving, 61 percent of drivers say that mass transit would be as fast or faster than driving. That view is shared by 66 percent of drivers from both Queens and Brooklyn.

My Take On Facebook And Myspace

July 2nd, 2007

Danah Boyd wrote last week that Facebook and Myspace show the markings of class division in the U.S. While that makes for an interesting read, I think the whole social networking space is a lot more like your local bar scene than it is like any kind of societal structure. And that creates a problem for social networking sites like Facebook that are hoping to lock up the space once and for all.

Social networking sites are basically like bars - you go there to socialize. But you can socialize at any bar, really, and there are lots to choose from. So why do you go to any one particular bar? Because a) it’s the cool bar at the moment and b) all of your friends are going.

The bars all have a very different feel to them, and they use those distinctive feels to project a particular image to people, to try and get them in the door. Some are wild, anything goes (myspace), some are fun but tidy (facebook) and some are formal and lifeless (linkedin).

The problem is that when your primary purpose for going is to socialize, and you can socialize at any, then these differences become relative, none absolutely better than the others. They become subject to tastes and whims.

Remember last year when Myspace was on top of the world? Everyone was proclaiming their “design your own page” policy to be one of the most brilliant move in history of the web. Now it’s one year later, and everyone is using Facebook. Facebook has a much more structured approach to web design, and people are actually saying that Myspace’s design-your-own-web-page approach is central to its downfall. But in fact it’s all totally relative. It’s just that the crowd has crossed the street, from the Myspace bar over to Facebook, the new hip bar in town, and the view from there makes Myspace look a bit shabby.

Facebook feels pretty hot right now. But I suspect it will get old and boring to people in time, and some newer, hotter bar will open up on the fringes of town somewhere. It’ll have outrageous design, and you’ll be able to do wild things there that you can’t do at Facebook, and the shift will begin.

So why does Danah Boyd see that some (well-educated) people have migrated to Facebook while other (less-educated) people have stayed behind at Myspace? Well, the people at Myspace just haven’t picked up on the fact that the party has moved yet. Or more to the point, the people who they specifically want to party with haven’t moved yet - they’re still partying at Myspace. This who-stays-and-who-goes distinction doesn’t fall along class lines though, any more or less than the movement of nightlife around NYC does. It’s more about who the opinion makers are, and who knows them, and who knows the people who know them and on and on.

Facebook is trying to do an end-run around this fate with its apps. They’re basically asking outside developers to keep their site fresh and re-designed for them all the time. Facebook essentially then becomes a social networking theme park, inside of which smaller social networking trends take off, have regular life spans, and then die, while they themselves live forever. If they can pull this off, kudos to them. But I think social dynamics are bigger than that, and I think Facebook will find itself on the back side of trendiness just like every other social networking site, one of these days.

Which means the window is always open for another social networking hit to come along. Though the odds of actually hitting it are incredibly long. But if you’ve the type who can open a bar in a college town with 1,000 other bars in it, and make yours the hot new thing, maybe you should consider taking a shot at it.

2 Additions to “My Take On Facebook And Myspace”

  1. brett Says:

    I find a city metaphor much more representative and complete than a bar metaphor here. These sites are rich with diverse, de facto neighborhoods for different crowds. It’s too reductive to think of these broad-based social networks as a single, unified space.

    MySpace is still undeniably *thee* social network if you’re in a band. And Facebook shows no signs of winning away that demographic anytime soon. It’s just not that kind of cool. It’s college and professional cool (which some might argue is not cool at all). So while Facebook may be the hot place for those crowds, MySpace still has the best music scene.

    In this way, I think there’s just as much room for various social networks on the web as there are cities in the world. Each will have its declines and booms over time, just as cities in the real world do. Perhaps MySpace is simply going through its bust-period, as New York City did in the 70s. A change in leadership, a crack-down on spam, favorable incentives for businesses (e.g. app developers once the API is opened up), or a site-wide redesign could change the whole place around.

    Hey, Friendster’s still running largely thanks to the boom of its “Little Manila” neighborhood…

  2. John Geraci Says:

    Sure, there are lots of possible metaphors, and each one has its own strengths and weaknesses. I think ‘bar’ gets you farther than ‘city’ but to each his own.

    An important thing to point out, as far as the class-as-determinant idea goes, is that you choose which web site you wish to participate in at any given moment, whereas you are born and raised into class. One is very fluid, the other is incredibly rigid. So it’s hard to argue that class is a central determinant of web site participation when one is the product of birth and the other is the product of instantaneous choice. Website affiliation is more determined by immediate, fluid social factors (where are my friends right now) than by long-term, rigid ones. Those immediate factors may be influenced by the longer-term ones, but that’s true for everything in society - which bars you hang out at, what restaurants you go to, what clothes you wear. There’s nothing special or different about websites in this regard.

New Outside.in Neighborhood News Widget

June 29th, 2007

Note the new widget on the right side of this blog. Our first widget from outside.in, it’s a little window into the goings on in the neighborhood around me. What do you think?

You can get it at outside.in/syndicate/, by the way.

The Web Is No Longer The Frontier

June 25th, 2007

There is lots and lots of innovation going on on the web today, that is certain. More than ever, I’d say. But it is no longer the frontier place it was when most of the people I know got interested in it. When my friends (and your friends) got interested in the web, it was a largely unbuilt world, a vague sketch with an invitation to fill in the details however you thought was best. It was a challenge as much as anything else - a challenge to come up with a rebuttal to whatever had been built before.

Now today the web is largely built (and damn it works well). I can do very nearly everything I could ever dream of wanting to do pretty easily on it. There are a few areas that still need filling in (hyperlocal for one, which outside.in is working on) but these areas will be filled in in the next couple of years.

The innovation is going to keep going, no doubt about it, and the pace will even quicken. There is still lots to be improved upon, and new opportunities to improve even further will keep popping up all the time. As someone who likes innovation, it’s very fun. But these new innovations come along, and they’re not mind-bending as they once were, they’re more ho-hum, hey, that’s nice. Even Google Street View, which just a few years ago would have blown your fucking mind drew a few “whoa cool”s, a few chuckles about pictures of people’s underwear, and a whole lot of questions about the usefulness of such a tool.

This is because the web is no longer the frontier. The web is THE status quo. I don’t think anyone has fully noticed that change of state yet. Everyone who built it is such a frontiersman (or woman) by nature that they think they’re still living in the mining town, drinking at the local saloon. But look around. The web is the dominant framework we’re all working with now. It’s no longer in a position to alter your thinking about the world - it can only reinforce it. Google Street View can’t blow your mind.

You started working in the web because you wanted to be a part of a revolution. Well, the revolution is complete, and it’s no longer a revolution, it’s just the everyday world.

Which is fine - there’s nothing wrong with that, and the world is a better place for the web being such a success.

But you always have to have frontiers and revolutions. You need some new image in which to rebuild the world. Minds need to be blown. So what is the new frontier going to be?

Seeing The City Of The Future In Detroit

June 23rd, 2007

Rebecca Solnit sees the future of sustainable cities arising organically from the ruins of Detroit.

The future, at least the sustainable one, the one in which we will survive, isn’t going to be invented by people who are happily surrendering selective bits and pieces of environmentally unsound privilege. It’s going to be made by those who had all that taken away from them or never had it in the first place.

Read her article, Detroit Arcadia, in the July issue of Hapers. (that link only works if you’re a subscriber to Harpers)

One Addition to “Seeing The City Of The Future In Detroit”

  1. david Says:

    Just re-posted the full text of Solnit’s work…

    http://fixbuffalo.blogspot.com/2007/07/detroit-arcadia.html

Plastic Bags: Going The Way Of The Dinosaur

June 21st, 2007

The plastic bag is squarely in the gun sights of the NYC shoperati it seems: 800 canvas “I’m Not a Plastic Bag” bags sold out in 3 hours in Soho yesterday.

One day there will only be a fossilized record of plastic bags remaining, three feet in depth, set firmly between the old tire layer and the diaper layer.

In the meantime, here is a really interesting link about how plastic can be made out of plants instead of fossil fuels. I figured as much.

The New Network

June 19th, 2007
What is New Network?

The New Network is what emerges once we take pervasive connectivity as a starting point. It’s broader than “fill-in-the-blank” 2.0, because it’s less about comparisons with the past, and more about describing the future. Developments as seemingly unrelated as virtual worlds, social networks, federated digital identity systems, search engine marketing, microblogging, zombie botnets, and conversational markets are all manifestations of what happens when users leverage their connectedness in new ways.

From Supernova 2007 Open Space Workshop

Modern Web

June 18th, 2007

If the web were modern art, we would today be just about at the end of impressionism, about to launch into fauvism, cubism, etc etc. This is where it gets interesting.

An Observation About Twitter

June 12th, 2007

I just surfed my way onto This is going to be BIG!, which has a post titled The Future of Twitter: Five Applications to Think About.

I haven’t gotten the chance to really use Twitter yet, so I’m witholding judgement one way or the other about it. But I will say this: when you see blog post after blog post inventing possible usage scenarios for an application, it’s not a positive sign.

If the case for use is really there, nobody has to create lists for it. It’s self-apparent. If people are creating lists, it’s a sign that they like the app, but they can’t find a convincing, necessary use case for it in their lives.

I speak here out of personal experience.

That said, I plan on trying Twitter out, and I hope I like it. It would be such a drag to be one of those Twitter-Haters.

2 Additions to “An Observation About Twitter”

  1. Charlie Says:

    “when you see blog post after blog post inventing possible usage scenarios for an application, it’s not a positive sign…”

    Oh yeah, because I’d rather have a business where people say, “This is the only think your technology could possibly ever do, and if it doesn’t succeed in doing that, you’re totally screwed.”

    Twitter is a platform… a very flexible platform that has more potential than just purely as a person to person sms communications tool… and it has the potential to create a lot of value in a number of areas, but it is very very early in its development at this point, so its hardly a bad thing to ponder all the possible potentials that it has. Very few successful startups stuck to their original plan 100%, so putting out potential paths to think about, and having more of them that make sense, is hardly a bad thing.

  2. john Says:

    “it is very very early in its development at this point, so its hardly a bad thing to ponder all the possible potentials that it has”

    Of course - and I’m not critiquing your post per se. Fine post, good ideas. I’m speaking about the aggregate voice on the web saying “here are some possible uses for twitter”. When you see that happening, it’s an indication that nobody has really found one overriding use for the app, including the makers themselves.

    That doesn’t necessarily spell doom for an app, and I don’t know if it will prove to be important or not for Twitter. As I said, I haven’t used Twitter much and I’m not judging it one way or another.

    This is just pattern recognition.

    As far as whether Twitter is a platform — I like Marc Andreessen’s comments on what make something a platform versus an app, in his recent post on Facebook. I would say Twitter is an app, not a platform.